Chii chakamirira chikamu chefetereza gore rinouya? Tiri kugovera chikamu chehurongwa hombe hwevanoongorora BCS kumusika weRussia – ngationei kuti zvinhu zvichange zvakaita sei muindastiri yose, uye kuti ndezvipi zvibatiso zvichave zvinofarirwa.
Fetereza yePhosphate haisati yakanganiswa nezvirango
Hunhu hwakakosha hwemusika wephosphate fetereza inoramba yakagadzikana. Mitengo yefetereza yakadzikira kubva kumusoro muQ1-2 2022, asi ramba uri pamusoro peavhareji yemakore akawanda. Panyaya yehuwandu, kutengeswa kunze kwenyika (uye kugadzirwa) kwefosfatiya mafetireza hazvina kukanganiswa.
Mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika (uyo ungangoshanda kubva muna 2023) wakaiswa pamwero wakafanira we23.5%, uye unongochajwa pamitengo iri pamusoro pemadhora mazana mana nemakumi mashanu patani. Ikozvino mutengo wenhanho uri pamusoro pechikumbaridzo ichi, asi basa racho haringaite kunge rakanyanya kukwirira. Chinhu chakakosha kutarisisa kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma kwemutengo - semaonero edu, musika wefetereza uri kudzikisa geopolitical risk premium.
Imwe nyaya yakakosha ndeyekuchengetedza mavhoriyamu ekunze, nepo isu tisingasanganisi zvimwe zvinhu zvisina kunaka (zvirango, kuvharira kana kumwe kutyora kwekutumira kunze kwenyika).
PhosAgro
Isu tinodzokorora kurudziro yedu yeHOLD yezvikamu zvePhosAgro uye kudzikisa mutengo wedu watinoda kusvika paRUB 6,600 kubva paRUB 6,900. Mafungiro akavandudzwa ekuchinjana anodzikisira fungidziro yedu zvishoma.
Maonero ekambani
PhosAgro's bhizinesi kesi inotemerwa zvakanyanya nemitengo. Sezvo mitengo iri kudzikira kubva kumarekodhi ehafu yekutanga ya2022 (maererano nekambani, maererano neMAP ivo vakatengeswa pamadhora mazana manomwe nemakumi manomwe nenomwe patani FOB Baltic Sea muchikamu chechitatu cha777 uye pamadhora zviuru zana patani muhafu yekutanga ya2022. )
Isu tinochengeta maonero asina kwaakarerekera ekambani, asi cherechedza hutongi hwakanaka hwekambani. Pamusoro pezvo, kambani inogovera purofiti yakakwira nevanogovana. Panguva imwecheteyo, hapana akadzima zvinhu zvakakosha, saka kana (uye riini) mitengo yadonha, pachave nepurofiti shoma yekugovaniswa.
kukura vatyairi
• Hapana kuderedzwa kwemitengo muna 2023. Isu ikozvino tinofanotaura kuti MAP/DAP mitengo ichadonha 21% yoy muna 2023 uye 25% yoy muna 2024. Kana mitengo ikaramba iri pamatanho azvino, tinogona kutarisira kukura kwepurofiti, zvikamu uye nokudaro kukosha.
• Ruble isina kusimba inogona kutsigira purofiti yeRuble (yevanotengesa kunze). Maererano nefungidziro yedu, iyo ruble exchange rate muna 2023 haizonyatso chinja kana ichienzaniswa ne2022 (68.4 rubles padhora uye 68.5 rubles padhora).
Tichifunga nezvehuwandu hwakakosha hwekutengeswa kunze kwenyika mumari yakazara, kukosha kwePhosAgro kune hanya nechiyero chekuchinjana. Kupera simba kweRuble kuchava nemhedzisiro yakanaka pamutengo wedu weRuble.
Njodzi dzinokosha
• Kuvhiringwa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kunogona kukanganisa misika. Ngozi yezvirango panguva ino ndeyekufungidzira, asi kupihwa zvirambidzo zvakasiyana-siyana pamafetiraiza eRussia (quotas, nezvimwewo), izvi hazvigone kubviswa zvachose. Semutengesi kunze kwenyika, PhosAgro inonzwira tsitsi kuUSD/RUB shanduko yekuchinja.
Mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvikuru zvePhosAgro, kunyangwe yadzikira, ichiri yakakwira. Ngozi yekuyerwa kwedu inoenderana nekukwira kwemitengo yefetereza, kupera simba kweRuble uye kuenderera kwemitengo yakakwira kwenguva yakareba.
Shanduko huru
Kuchinja kwemari, mari yekutonga. Isu takagadziridza kukura kweSG&A mu1H22 (+131% YoY) uye normalization mu3Q2022 (chete + 2% YoY).
Isu zvino tinotenda kuti kusvetuka uku kwakange kuri kwekamwe chete nekuda kwekubhadhara kunhengo dzakasiya basa dzebhodhi revatungamiriri. Muchikamu, izvi zvinogadzirisa kuwedzera kwemitengo yekuchinja kweruble. Kufanotaura kwa2022 kuchave kwakashata zvishoma kupfuura zvataifungidzira, uye iyo EBITDA nhungamiro ye2023 zvakare yakadzikira zvishoma. Muna 2024, kudzikiswa kwemari yekutonga kuchagadzirisa zvizere mhedzisiro yekudzokororwa kwemari uye EBITDA / mihoro ichavandudza.
Kuongorora uye kurudziro
Zvishoma kuderedza mutengo wakanangwa, simbisa "Bata". Kufungidzira PhosAgro, tinoshandisa DCF modhi ine WACC ye16.4%, CoE ye16.7% uye post-precast yekukura kwe3%.
Muenzaniso wedu unoratidza mutengo wakatarwa wemwedzi gumi nemiviri ye12 rubles. - "Bata" (tichifunga nezvekufungidzira kwedu kwemitengo uye mavhoriyamu). Zviripachena, kukosha kwedu kunewo hanya nemitengo yekunze (inenge 6,600% yekutengesa), huwandu hwekugovera, mavhoriyamu, mitengo yekuchinjana, nezvimwe. Ziva kuti mavhoriyamu nemitengo ndizvo zvakakosha zvakanyanya kune zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kwekambani.