Jose A. Egea1*, Manuel Caro2, Jesu García-Brunton2, Jesus Gambín 3, José Egea 1 naDavid Ruiz 1*
- 1Boka Rokubereka Zvibereko, Dhipatimendi reKudyara Zvidyarwa, CEBAS-CSIC, Murcia, Spain
- 2Murcia Institute yeAgri-Chikafu Tsvagiridzo uye Kubudirira, Murcia, Spain
- 3ENAE Bhizinesi Chikoro, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
Kugadzirwa kwemichero yematombo kune kukosha kukuru kwehupfumi muSpain. Nzvimbo dzekurima dzemhando dzemichero iyi (kureva, pichisi, apricot, plum, uye cherry inotapira) inofukidza nzvimbo dzakafara uye dzemamiriro ekunze akasiyana munyika. Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kuri kutounza kuwedzera kweavhareji tembiricha nekunyanya kusimba mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakaita sedzeMediterranean. Shanduko idzi dzinotungamira mukudzikira kwekutonhora kwakaunganidzwa, izvo zvinogona kuve nemhedzisiro yakakura pane phenology ye Prunus mhando dzakaita semichero yematombo nekuda kwe, semuenzaniso, kuomerwa nekuvhara zvinodiwa kutonhora kutyora enddormancy, kuitika kwezviitiko zvechando munguva yechando, kana kutonhora kwekutanga kusingaite. Zvese izvi zvinhu zvinogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya kugadzirwa kwemichero uye kunaka uye nekudaro zvinomutsa mhedzisiro yakaipa kubva pakuona kwesocial-economic mumatunhu aripo. Saka, hunhu hwenzvimbo dzekurima dzazvino maererano neagroclimatic variables (semuenzaniso, kutonhora nekupisa kuunganidzwa uye zvingangoitika zvechando uye nekutanga kusingawanzo kupisa zviitiko), zvichibva pane data kubva 270 mamiriro ekunze kwemakore makumi maviri apfuura, inoitwa mubasa iri buritsa mufananidzo unodzidzisa wemamiriro azvino. Kunze kwezvo, fungidziro yemamiriro ekunze emunguva yemberi kubva kumhando dzemamiriro ekunze epasi rose (data rakatorwa kubva kuMeteorological State Agency yeSpain—AEMET) kusvika muna 20 kune maviri Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (kureva, RCP2065 neRCP4.5) anoongororwawo. Tichishandisa mamiriro azvino sehwaro uye tichitarisa mamiriro enguva yemberi, ruzivo rwezvino uye mune ramangwana rinoenderana nekukodzera kwemarudzi akasiyana/macultivar kunzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana dzinokura dzinogona kutaurwa. Ruzivo urwu runogona kunge rwuri hwaro hwechishandiso chetsigiro chekubatsira vatori vechikamu vakasiyana-siyana kutora sarudzo dzakakwana maererano nemichero yematombo yazvino uye yeramangwana kana kumwe kurimwa kwemhando dzakadzikama muSpain.
ziviso
Spain ndeimwe yevanonyanya kugadzira michero yematombo pasi rose (kureva, peach, apricot, plum, uye sweet cherry) ine avhareji yegore yekugadzirwa inosvika mamiriyoni maviri ematani. Kurimwa kwemichero iyi kune basa rakakosha rehupfumi munyika, rinofukidza 2 ha (FAOSTAT, 2019) Nzvimbo huru dzinokura muSpain dzekurima idzi dziri munzvimbo dzine hunhu hwakasiyana hwekurima: kubva kunzvimbo dzinodziya seGuadalquivir Valley uye chikamu chikuru chenzvimbo yeMedithera kuenda kunzvimbo dzinotonhora sekuchamhembe kweExtremadura, Ebro valley, nedzimwe nzvimbo dzemukati dzenzvimbo yeMedithera. (ona Mufananidzo 1) Sezvo zvirimwa izvi zvinoda chill yakakwana yechando kutyora enddormancy kudzivirira matambudziko ekugadzira (Atkinson et al., 2013)Campoy et al., 2011b; Luedeling et al., 2011; Luedeling, 2012; Julian et al., 2007; Guo et al., 2015; 2019; Chmielewski et al., 2018), uye (iv) sarudza nzira dzakanakisa dzekurima uye matekinoroji ekudzikisa mhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze (Campoy et al., 2010; Mahmood et al., 2018).
Chill uye kupisa zvinodiwa (Fadón et al., 2020b) kana nhanho yekukuvara kwechando (Miranda et al., 2005) yemhando dzazvino dzakarimwa / cultivars dzinogona kusanganiswa neagroclimatic metrics munzvimbo dzakasiyana kuvaka maturusi esarudzo anobatsira vagadziri uye vamwe vanobatanidzwa kugadzira yakakwana kugadzirwa uye mitemo yehupfumi kwenguva yepakati uye yakareba. Inowanikwa maturusi ekuenzanisa ekugadzirisa akakura akateedzana emamiriro ekunze uye phenological atoshanda sehwaro hwekuvaka izvo zvataurwa pamusoro apa maturusi esarudzo (Luedeling, 2019; Luedeling et al., 2021; Miranda et al., 2021) Kufungidzira kwemamiriro ekunze munzvimbo yeMediterranean kunoratidza kuti mhedzisiro yekudziya kwepasi inogona kunyanya kuoma munzvimbo iyi (Giorgi naLionello, 2008; MedECC, 2020; IPCC, 2021), nekudaro matanho ekufungidzira akakosha kudzivirira matambudziko ekugadzirwa kweramangwana, izvo zvinogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya hupfumi hwemamwe matunhu seanoratidzwa muchidzidzo chino (Olesen naBindi, 2002; Benmoussa et al., 2018).
Zvidzidzo zvakasiyana-siyana zvekutsvaga zvakaratidza kukanganisa kwakashata kwekudziya kwepasi pakugadzirwa kwemichero ine mwero uye nzungu munzvimbo dzakasiyana pasirese. Zvikonzero zvikuru zvine chekuita nekudzikira kwekutonhora kwechando kunyangwe kuwedzera kwenjodzi dzechando nekuda kwekufambira mberi kunotarisirwa mukutumbuka nekutumbuka kunocherechedzwawo mune zvimwe zvidzidzo. Somuenzaniso, Fernandez et al. vakafungidzira kudzikira kwekutonhora kwechando kunodiwa pakugadzirwa kwemichero muChile, paine zvinotarisirwa zvakaipa munzvimbo dzekuchamhembe kwenyika. Panguva imwecheteyo, vakafungidzira kudzikiswa kwakanyanya kwechando chingangoitika panguva inonzwisisika yebudburst yemiti yemichero inodonha kune ese anotariswa nzvimbo.Fernandez et al., 2020); Lorite et al. akaongorora zviitiko zvakaita sekushaikwa kwekutonhora kwechando, njodzi yechando, uye mamiriro ekudziya panguva yekutumbuka muIberian Peninsula kune mamwe maalmond cultivar anobatanidza mamiriro ekunze uye ruzivo rwe phenological. Vakaona kuti, kazhinji (uye zvichienderana nemhando yekurima), (i) kushayikwa kwekutonhora kwechando kuchanyanya kutaurwa mumhenderekedzo yeMedithera neGuadalquivir Valley, (ii) mamiriro ekudziya panguva yekutumbuka achanyanya kusimba muCentral. Plateau neEbro Valley, uye (iii) njodzi yechando ichaderedzwa kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzeNorth Plateau neNorthern Hilly Areas (Lorite et al., 2020) Benmoussa et al. fungidziro yakakosha yekudzikisira kwechando munguva yechando muTunisia iyo inogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya kugadzirwa kwemimwe michero nenzungu. Semuenzaniso, pamamiriro ezvinhu asina tariro, maarumondi anotonhora chete anogona kushanda. Mune zvimwe zviitiko, mamwe mapistachios nemapichisi cultivars anogona kushanda kunyangwe kwenguva yakareba kuNorth-Western chikamu chenyika (Benmoussa et al., 2020); Fraga naSantos vakafunga nezve ramangwana kutonhora uye kuunganidza kupisa uye maitiro avo pakugadzirwa kwemichero yakasiyana muPortugal. Vakafungidzira kudzikira kwakasimba mukutonhora kwechando kunozokanganisa zvakanyanya matunhu emukati menyika. Maodzanyemba nzvimbo dzinokura maapuro dzichanyanya kuratidzwa nekudzikisira kutonhora. Vanyori vakafungidzirawo kuwedzera kwekupisa kuunganidza, nekukanganisa kwakanyanya munzvimbo dzekumaodzanyemba uye dzemahombekombe enyika. Vakasimbisa kuti chokwadi ichi chinogona kuwedzera njodzi yekukuvadzwa kwechando nekuda kwekufambira mberi kwematanho ephenological (Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; Fraga naSantos, 2021) akaenzanisa mamiriro azvino enzvimbo dzekugadzira mimwe michero inodziya muSpain nemamiriro ekunze ekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze maererano nekuunganidza kutonhora. Vakafanotaura kurasikirwa kwakakosha kwekutonhora mune dzimwe nzvimbo (semuenzaniso, Maodzanyemba-Mabvazuva kana Gualdalquivir nharaunda) kunyangwe munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Nezveramangwana riri kure (> 2070), vanyori ava vakataura kuti tichifunga nezvenzvimbo dzirikukura ikozvino, plum, almond, uye maapuro cultivars anogona kukanganiswa zvakanyanya nekushaikwa kwekutonhora.Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021).
Muchidzidzo ichi, takaongorora misiyano mikuru yeagroclimatic ine chekuita nekugadzirisa michero yematombo munzvimbo dzakasiyana mukati meSpain, kusanganisira idzo dzinonyanya kukosha kugadzira michero yematombo kunoitwa uchishandisa data kubva ku270 mamiriro ekunze panguva ye2000-2020. Izvi zvinoperekedzwa nefungidziro yetembiricha yeramangwana kufungidzira kutonhora uye kuunganidzwa kwekupisa uye mukana wenguva yemberi wechando uye zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika zvichienzaniswa nemamiriro azvino. Ruzivo urwu runogona kubatsira zvakanyanya pakutora sarudzo dzakanangana nekuisa minda yemichero mitsva, kutamisa azvino, kana kusarudza mhando dzemhando dzekurima kuti uwane purofiti mukufamba kwenguva.
Mupiro mukuru wechidzidzo ichi ndechokuti takaongorora panguva imwe chete zvakasiyana-siyana zveagroclimatic zvine chokuita nekugadzirisa michero yematombo. Kwete chete kutonhora kuunganidza kuzadzisa CRs sezvakaitwa muchidzidzo na Rodríguez et al. (2019, 2021) asiwo kuunganidza kupisa kwemaruva akakodzera, njodzi dzechando, uye shanduko isingawanzo kuverengerwa mumabhuku: mukana wezviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika munguva yechando izvo zvinogona kuwedzera endodormancy kusunungurwa nekukanganisa kwakashata pakugadzirwa kwemichero, kunaka, uye goho, sezvazvave zvichiitwa. yakaonekwa munzvimbo dzinodziya mukati memakore apfuura. Isu takashandisa data kubva kune yakaomesesa network yemamiriro ekunze ezviteshi zvinopa chaiwo metrics emamiriro azvino. Isu takatarisa kunzvimbo dziripo dzekugadzira sezvo sarudzo dzine chekuita nekudziya kwekudziya dzinogona kutorwa munzvimbo idzodzo, uko matekinoroji akakodzera uye ruzivo zvakagadzikiswa zvakanaka. Munzvimbo dzakadai, kutamiswa kwembesa kwaizounza mhedzisiro yemagariro nehupfumi uye kushomeka kwevanhu. Kupfuurirazve, pakuratidza mamiriro ezvinhu aripo, takashandisa tembiricha chaiyo yeawa pachinzvimbo cheinofungidzirwa, izvo zvinopa kunyatsojeka kune zvabuda kana zvichienzaniswa nezvimwe zvidzidzo uko tembiricha yeawa inopinzwa kubva kune yemazuva ese. Sarudzo yakashandiswa (∼5 km) yakanaka kupfuura mune zvimwe zvidzidzo zvakafanana muSpain (Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; Lorite et al., 2020) uye inobatsira kuita sarudzo kunyangwe padanho renzvimbo.
Zvinhu uye Nzira
Climatic Data uye Agroclimatic Variables
Data yemamiriro ekunze kubva 340 mamiriro ekunze ari munzvimbo huru dzematombo dzinogadzira nzvimbo muSpain (ona Mufananidzo 1) yakashandiswa kuongorora agroclimatic metrics. Ruzivo rwaisanganisira machinjiro makuru emamiriro ekunze, anosanganisira kureva, kuremesa, uye kushoma tembiricha (°C), hunyoro hunoenderana (%), kunaya kwemvura (mm), evapotranspiration (ETo, mm), uye nemwaranzi yezuva (W/m2) Marekodhi asina kukwana uye nyaya dzakawanikwa mune dzimwe nhepfenyuro dzakatariswa. Mushure mekushandisa mutemo weSpanish (UNE 500540, 2004), nhamba yekupedzisira yezviteshi 270 yakasarudzwa. Data yekushisa kweawa yakanga yakakwana kunze kwemaawa asina chinhu anoenderana nezviitiko zvekuchengetedza izvo zvisina kuzadzwa sezvo zvaive nechikamu chisingaverengeki chehuwandu. Tembiricha dzinorevesa paawa imwe neimwe mumwaka wa2000–2020 dzakashandiswa kuverengera misiyano mikuru yeagroclimatic, kusanganisira kutonhora uye kuunganidzwa kwekupisa pamwe nezvinobvira zvechando zvinokuvadza uye zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika munguva yechando. Huwandu hwemakore akazara pachiteshi hunosiyana pachiteshi: kubva pa5 kusvika kumakore makumi maviri nerimwe (median = 21) zvichienderana nechiteshi.
Kuunganidzwa kwekutonhora kwemwaka wega wega kwakaverengerwa kubva 1st yaMbudzi kusvika 28 Kukadzi wegore rinotevera. Utah (Richardson et al., 1974) uye Dynamic (Fishman et al., 1987) mhando dzakashandiswa kuita kuverenga uku. Kuunganidzwa kwekupisa kwemwaka wega wega kwakaverengerwa kubva 1st yaNdira kusvika 8 Kubvumbi (kutenderera mavhiki gumi nemana) uchishandisa Richardson (Richardson et al., 1974uye Anderson (Anderson et al., 1986) mhando, dzinopa mhedzisiro mukukura madhigirii maawa (GDHs). Zvingangoitika zvechando uye zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika zvakaverengerwa pasvondo sezvinotevera: kwevhiki yega yega, chiitiko chechando chinoitika kana tembiricha inowira pasi -1 ° C mukati maawa matatu akateedzana. Zvadaro, mukana wekuitika kwezviitiko zvechando mune imwe vhiki inotsanangurwa senhamba yenguva vhiki iyoyo yakaita chiitiko chimwe chechando panguva yekudzidza yakakamurwa nehuwandu hwemakore anofungidzirwa. Saizvozvo, chiitiko chekupisa chisina kujairika chinoitika kana tembiricha ichikwira pamusoro pe25°C kweanenge maawa matatu akatevedzana. Zvadaro, mukana wekuitika kwezviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika zvinoverengerwa sekutsanangurwa kwezviitiko zvechando. Vhiki yekutanga yakatanga musi wa1 Ndira. Pazviitiko zvechando, mavhiki kubva pa1 kusvika ku2 aionekwa seanomiririra mavhiki ane njodzi. Mavhiki ekutanga muchikamu (kureva, vhiki 10 kusvika vhiki 2-5) ndidzo dzine njodzi zvakanyanya munzvimbo dzinodziya, nepo dzimwe (kureva, vhiki 6-5 kusvika vhiki 6) dzinove dzakanyanya kuoma munzvimbo dzinotonhora. Kune zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika, nguva yakatariswa kubva pavhiki 10 yegore rapfuura (kutanga kwaZvita) kusvika 49 (kupera kwaKukadzi) apo zviitiko izvi zvaigona kuwedzera kuburitswa kwedormancy kwakabatana nedambudziko rekugadzira gare gare.
Future Scenarios
Nezve mamiriro enguva yemberi, tembiricha yekufungidzira yakaverengerwa neSpanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) yakashandiswa. AEMET yanga ichigadzira mumakore achangopfuura seti yekutarisa yakadzikira kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze pamusoro peSpain ingave ichishandisa statistical downscaling matekiniki kune zvakabuda zvepasi rose mamiriro emamiriro ekunze (GCMs) kana kushandisa ruzivo rwunogadzirwa nehunyanzvi hwekudzika nzira kuburikidza nemapurojekiti eEurope kana zvirongwa zvepasi rose. zvakaita sePRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, uye EURO-CORDEX (Amblar-Francés et al., 2018) Muchidzidzo chino, takashandisa tembiricha yakafungidzirwa yezuva nezuva (kureva, kukwirisa uye kushoma) tichishandisa statistical downscaling inoenderana neartificial neural network. Izvi zvakaongororwa senzira yakakodzera yekugadzira fungidziro yemamiriro ekunze mune zvazvino uye zveramangwana mamiriro muSpain uku ichideredza GCMs modhi biases (Hernanz et al., 2022a,b) pamusoro pegridi ye5 km resolution. Nzvimbo mbiri dzenguva pfupi dzakatariswa, dzinoti, 2025–2045 (inozivikanwa na2035) uye 2045–2065 (inofananidzirwa na2055) kuti ipe mhedzisiro yenguva pfupi uye yepakati. Nzira mbiri dzinomiririra dzevasungwa, kureva, RCP4.5 uye RCP8.5, dzakatariswa (van Vuuren et al., 2011) Chekucherechedza, gumi nerimwe maGCM akashandiswa muchidzidzo ichi (Tafura 1) Zvigumisiro zvakaratidzwa pachishandiswa an Ensemble nzira (Semenov uye Stratonovovich, 2010; Wallach et al., 2018) uko zviyero zveavhareji zvezviyero zvinofungidzirwa (semuenzaniso, kutonhora uye kuunganidza kupisa kana zvingangoitika) zvakaverengerwa nemhando dzese dzakashandiswa mumatanho anotevera. Tembiricha dzeawa dzekuverenga maagroclimatic indexes dzakateedzerwa kubva kune dzemazuva ese uchishandisa chillR package (Luedeling, 2019).
Tafura 1
TABLE 1. Rondedzero yemhando dzemamiriro ekunze epasi rose dzakashandiswa muchidzidzo ichi.
Kuti uenzanise kushanduka kweagroclimatic mumamiriro azvino uye emangwana, nzvimbo chaidzo dzenzvimbo dzemamiriro ekunze dzakaenzaniswa nenzvimbo dzadzo dzepedyo kubva kune grid. Hurefu, hudiki, uye kureba kureba kubva kuzviteshi zvemamiriro ekunze kuenda kunzvimbo dzadzo dzepedyo mugedhi dzaive 3.87, 0.26, uye 2.14 km, zvichiteerana. Muzviitiko zvese (zvinoitika iyezvino nezveramangwana), nzvimbo yakapindirana yakatenderedza nzvimbo dzemamiriro ekunze dzinofungidzirwa (kureva, isingapfuuri makiromita makumi mashanu kubva pachiteshi chemamiriro ekunze chiri pedyo) yakaverengerwa pachishandiswa nzira yekuyera kuremerwa kwedaro.
Results
Chill Accumulation
Sezvakataurwa pamusoro apa, mhando mbiri dzakashandiswa kuverenga kuunganidza kutonhora, zvinoti, Utah (muzvikamu zvekutonhora) uye Dynamic modhi (muzvikamu). Uchishandisa huremu hwehuwandu hwakaunganidzwa kutonhora mukati menguva yese yezviteshi zvese, kuwirirana kwakanyanya kwakawanikwa pakati pema indexes (R2 = 0.95, Supplementary Figure 1) Naizvozvo, mhedzisiro inounzwa uchishandisa imwe chete yadzo (zvikamu). Mufananidzo 2 inoratidza mapatani epamhepo ezvikamu zvinorebesa zvinotonhora panguva dzakasiyana dzakatariswa. Mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo, tinogona kuona kuti kune nzvimbo dzinoverengeka dzenzvimbo dzine kutonhora kwakanyanya (≥75 zvikamu), seEbro Valley, kuchamhembe kweExtremadura, uye dzimwe nzvimbo dzemukati muMediterranean. MuMedithera neGuadalquivir Valley chete, nzvimbo dzinodziya dzine kutonhora kuungana pasi pezvikamu makumi matanhatu (kunyangwe pasi pe60 mune dzimwe nzvimbo dziri kwadzo dzoga) dzinowanikwa. Mamiriro emangwana anoratidza kudzikira kuri pachena kwekutonhora kwakaunganidzwa munzvimbo dzinodziya, kuchamhembe kweExtremadura uye dzimwe nzvimbo dzemukati meMediterranean. Kudzikira kwekutonhora kwakawanda muEbro Valley kuchagadzirwa kumabvazuva kwenzvimbo iyoyo, ukuwo mukati uchiunganidza kutonhora kukuru kwechando kunyangwe mumamiriro ezvinhu asina tariro (semuenzaniso, 50_RCP2055). Mhedzisiro yekudziya kwepasi pamusoro pekutonhora kwechando kuderera kwakanyanya mu8.5_RCP2055 mamiriro sezvaitarisirwa. Matafura Ekuwedzera 1-4 ratidza kuwanda kwekutonhora munguva yakatariswa (1 Mbudzi kusvika kupera kwaKukadzi) muzvikamu zvenzvimbo dzese nemamodheru mune ese anoonekwa mamiriro emangwana. Hukoshi hwepakati hwezvakabuda zvemhando gumi neimwe inoratidzwa, pamwe chete nechando chakanyoreswa chakaunganidzwa kwenguva 2000-2020 nekuda kwekuenzanisa.
Mufananidzo 2
FIGURE 2. Chill kuunganidza munzvimbo huru dzekugadzira matombo muSpain kune mamiriro azvino (anenge 2000-2020), mahorizons maviri enguva (2025-2045 uye 2045-2065) uye maviri emangwana mamiriro (RCP4.5 uye RCP8.5).
Kuti utarise kana kuunganidzwa kwechando kunotarisirwa kuderera kuchava nesimba rakafanana pamusoro penzvimbo zvichienderana nekuunganidza kwazvino kutonhora, kupatsanurwa kwe270 nhepfenyuro yemamiriro ekunze yakaitwa, ichizvipatsanura maererano nezvikamu zvakaunganidzwa mune yazvino mamiriro: kuderera kuunganidza (< 60 zvikamu, 34 zviteshi), kuunganidzwa kwepakati (pakati pemakumi matanhatu ne60 zvikamu, 80 zviteshi), uye kuunganidza kwakanyanya (pamusoro pezvikamu makumi masere, 121 zviteshi). Mufananidzo 3 inoratidza mabhokisi ezvikamu zvakaunganidzirwa mumamiriro ese ezvinhu emhando nhatu dzenzvimbo. Iko kucherechedzwa kuunganidzwa kwekutonhora kuderera kunotarisirwa zvichienderana nechero chiitiko. Panyaya yekusiyana kwemaitiro epakati pakati pezvinoitika uye zveramangwana, zvinoita sekuti mhando nhatu dzenzvimbo dzinopa maitiro akafanana (zvinoreva kuti kurasikirwa kwepakati kwakakwira munzvimbo dzakaderera dzekuunganidza). Zvisinei, kupararira kwe data kwakasiyana zvikuru. Nzvimbo dzakaderera uye dzakakwirira dzechill accumulation nzvimbo dzinoratidza kupararira kwakaderera (nezvimwe zvinobuda kunze kwekupedzisira kwekugovera) pane nzvimbo dziri pakati nepakati, dzinopa kupararira kwepamusoro asi kusina kunze. Ongororo yeaya ekunze ekuunganidzira nzvimbo dzekutonhora kunoratidza kuti iyo yekunze kune ese mana emangwana mamiriro inoenderana nemukati meMediterranean nzvimbo (Játiva). Kune yakaderera kutonhora kuunganidza nzvimbo, iyo yekunze mune yega yega (kusanganisira yazvino mamiriro) inoenderana nenzvimbo yegungwa yeMediterranean (Almería). Iwo anobuditsa ekupedzisira kwekugoverwa munzvimbo dzakadzikira dzekutonhora dzinoenderana nenzvimbo dzemukati muMediterranean (kureva, Montesa, Callosa de Sarriá, uye Murcia) kunyangwe zvingave zvigadzirwa sezvo fungidziro yakaratidza kuwanda kuunganidza kutonhora mune ramangwana kupfuura ikozvino. Scenario. Zvinogona kukonzerwa nekusiyana kwemamiriro ekunze kunobvira pakati penzvimbo chaiyo yezviteshi zvemamiriro ekunze nenzvimbo yadzo yepedyo mugridi yekufungidzira mune ramangwana.
Mufananidzo 3
FIGURE 3. Mabhokisi akaunganidzirwa kutonhora mumamiriro ese epasi (<60 zvikamu), zvepakati (pakati pezvikamu makumi matanhatu ne60), uye akakwira (> 80 zvikamu) zviteshi zvekuzviunganidzira zvinotonhora, zvichitaurwa kune mamiriro azvino.
Kuwedzera Kupisa
Kuunganidzwa kwekupisa kwakaverengerwa pachishandiswa modhi mbiri (kureva, Richardson uye Anderson modhi) zvakafanana kuunganidza kutonhora. Kuwirirana kwepamusoro kwakawanikwa zvakare pakati pemhedzisiro yemhando mbiri (R2 = 0.998, Supplementary Figure 2) Naizvozvo, mhedzisiro inounzwa uchishandisa chete mhedzisiro yemuenzaniso weAnderson. Mufananidzo 4 inoratidza maitiro epakati ezvinoreva GDH panguva dzakasiyana dzinofungidzirwa. Mamiriro ese ane chekuita neGDH anoita seanopindirana nemamiriro avo ekuunganidza kutonhora (Mufananidzo 2) Nzvimbo idzo kuunganidza kutonhora kwakadzikira ikozvino kuunganidza kupisa kwakanyanya uye zvinopesana. Sezvo kutonhora kunowedzera kunoderera mune ramangwana mamiriro, kuunganidza kupisa kunowedzera zvakaenzana munzvimbo imwe neimwe. Semuyenzaniso, iyo Pearson correlation coefficient pakati pekurasika chill kuunganidza uye yakawana kuunganidzwa kwekupisa kwezvino uye 2055_RCP8.5 scenarios ndeye 0.68 (p-kukosha <1e-15).
Mufananidzo 4
FIGURE 4. Kuunganidzwa kwekupisa munzvimbo huru dzekugadzira matombo muSpain kune mamiriro azvino (anenge 2000-2020), mahorizons maviri enguva (2025-2045 uye 2045-2065) uye maviri emangwana mamiriro (RCP4.5 uye RCP8.5)
Senge mune yekutonhora kuunganidza kesi, mhedzisiro yekuwedzera kweGDH yakanyanya kusimba mune 2055_RCP8.5 scenario sezvaitarisirwa. Matafura Ekuwedzera 5-8 ratidza huwandu hwekupisa kuunganidzwa munguva yakatariswa (1 Ndira-8 Kubvumbi) muGDH kune ese nzvimbo uye mamodheru mune ese anoonekwa mamiriro. Iko kukosha kwezvakabuda zvemhando gumi neimwe inoratidzwa, pamwe neyakanyoreswa yakaunganidzwa kupisa kwenguva ye2000-2020 yezvinangwa zvekuenzanisa.
Frost uye Abnormal Heat Zviitiko Zvinogoneka
Mukana wezviitiko zvechando sezvatsanangurwa pamusoro unoratidzwa mu Mufananidzo 5 kuenzanisa mavhiki 2-10 yezvino uye 2035_RCP4.5 uye 2055_RCP8.5 mamiriro (zvinongoitika chete ≥ 10%). Mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo, mikana yakakosha yezviitiko zvechando yakanyorwa kunyanya munzvimbo dzeEbro Valley asiwo kuchamhembe kweExtremadura uye nzvimbo dzemukati dzeMediterranean. Frost mikana inodzikira kubva kumavhiki 2 kusvika ku10 sezvaitarisirwa, asi dzimwe nzvimbo muEbro Valley dzichiri kupa mukana wakakura wechando pavhiki 10. Iyo yakaongororwa yeramangwana mamiriro Mufananidzo 5 ndivo vane tariro zvikuru (kureva, 2035_RCP4.5) uye vasina tariro (kureva, 2055_RCP8.5), zvichiteerana, maererano nekukwira kwetembiricha. Mukana wezviitiko zvechando unonyangarika kubva kuExtremadura uye unodzikira munzvimbo dzese, nepo nzvimbo dzakaderedzwa dzeEbro Valley nedzimwe nzvimbo dziri kure mukati meMediterranean dzinoratidza zvingangoitika pamusoro pe10% kunyangwe muvhiki 10. Sezviri kuitika izvozvi, mikana yechando inoderera kubva vhiki 2 kusvika 10. Zvinoshamisa kuti, 2035_RCP4.5 uye 2055_RCP8.5 scenarios inopa mifananidzo yakafanana maererano nezviitiko zvechando, zvichiratidza kuti Ebro Valley nedzimwe nzvimbo dzomukati dzeMediterranean dzichasangana nezviitiko zvechando mune zvose zvinofungidzirwa zviitiko.
Mufananidzo 5
FIGURE 5. Mikana yezviitiko zvechando munzvimbo huru dzekugadzira matombo muSpain kwemavhiki maviri kusvika gumi kune yazvino, 2_RCP10 uye 2035_RCP4.5 mamiriro.
Kukurukurirana uye Mhedziso
Ichi chidzidzo chakaedza kuratidza michero mikuru yematombo inoburitsa nzvimbo dzeSpain vachishandisa nhoroondo yeagroclimatic data (kunyanya tembiricha) kubva ku270 mamiriro ekunze akapararira munzvimbo dzakadai uye kuenzanisa mhedzisiro nekufungidzira mune ramangwana mune mbiri nguva horizons uye RCP scenarios. Nzvimbo dzekudzidza dzakasarudzwa zvichienderana nekuti sarudzo dzazvino uye dzenguva yemberi dzichaitwa maererano nekurimwa kwemichero yematombo (kureva, peach, apricot, plum, uye sweet cherry) ichanyanya kutorwa mukati menzvimbo dzekugadzira ikozvino, uko ruzivo uye ruzivo. michina yekurima zvirimwa izvi yakaiswa zvakasimba. Nokudaro, chidzidzo ichi hachitarise kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzemangwana dzinogona kuitika dzekurima michero yematombo.
Mamiriro makuru akaverengerwa, kureva, kutonhora nekuwanda kwekupisa, anoratidza kuti nzvimbo dzakatariswa dzakasiyana chaizvo nemaonero emamiriro ekunze uye kuti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze ichave nemhedzisiro yakakosha, kunyanya munzvimbo dzinodziya zvakanyanya kunyangwe munguva yepakati. Mienzaniso inoshandiswa kuverenga imwe yadzo (kureva, Utah neDynamic yekutonhorwa uye Richardson naAnderson pakuunganidza kupisa) inoratidza hukama hwakanyanya sezvakambowanikwa na Ruiz et al. (2007, 2018).
Kwakakosha kuunganidza kuderedzwa kunofungidzirwa munzvimbo dzese, izvo zvinobvumirana nezvidzidzo zvekare munzvimbo dzeMedithera (Benmoussa et al., 2018, 2020; Rodríguez et al., 2019; Delgado et al., 2021; Fraga naSantos, 2021) Kudzikira kwekutonhora kunenge kwakafanana mumatunhu ese akadzidzwa, asi iwo anodziya zvakanyanya (kureva, nzvimbo yeMedithera neGuadalquivir Valley) anogona kunyanya kukanganiswa maererano nekukodzera kurimwa kwemichero yematombo sezvo mamiriro avo azvino atove muganhu. cultivars dzakawanda. Munzvimbo dzinotonhora dzakaita seEbro Valley neExtremadura, kudzikira kwechando hakuzove chipingamupinyi chekuenderera mberi nekurima, kunyangwe mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzinotonhora muExtremadura neMedithera, kutonhora kunowedzera kunowedzera kupfuura kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzinotonhora. Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti, maererano Mufananidzo 3, kamwe kamwe kudonha kwekutonhora kuunganidza pakati pemamiriro ezvinhu epanguva ino uye munguva yemberi iri pedyo inoonekwa. Kugadziriswa kwegridhi yakashandiswa, kunyangwe yakanaka (~5 km) inogona kuve chikonzero cheichi chiitiko. Zvimwe zvinogona kukonzera mutsauko unotungamira kune kuwedzeredza misiyano pakati pezvakarongwa nehunhu chaihwo hunogona kunge hwasara hweGCM modhi kusarura kusadzikiswa zvachose panguva yekudzikisa, kana kuti isu tiri kuenzanisa kuverenga kunoitwa neawa chaiyo tembiricha (kureva, ikozvino. mamiriro) uye maverengero akaitwa neakanaka tembiricha curves inotorwa kubva kunofungidzirwa zuva nezuva huwandu uye hushoma tembiricha (Linville, 1990) yezvinoitika zveramangwana. Madonhwe akafanana akangoerekana adonha munguva pfupi iri kutevera akaonekwawo naRodríguez et al., uyo akafanotaura kuderera kwezvikamu makumi matatu zvinopisa zvenguva ye30-2021 mune dzimwe nzvimbo muSpain (Rodríguez et al., 2019), iyo inobvumirana nemigumisiro yedu. Benmoussa et al. (2020), Delgado et al. (2021), uye Fraga naSantos (2021) yakashumawo kudonha kwakangoerekana kwaitika pakati pezvakaitika kare uye zveramangwana zviitiko muTunisia, Portugal, uye Asturias (North Spain), zvichiteerana. Sezvakaitika kwatiri, zvidzidzo izvi zvakaratidzawo kuti hapana misiyano yakakosha yechando yakaunganidzwa inoonekwa munguva pfupi iri kutevera zvisinei neRCP inofungidzirwa. Zvakasiyana kuti kutonhora kuunganidzwe, kuunganidza kupisa kunokwira mune ese mamiriro (kunyanya mu2055_RCP8.5 sezvaitarisirwa), uye shanduko yayo inopesana neizvi zvekuunganidza kutonhora. Izvi zvakaonekwawo na Fraga naSantos (2021) yePortugal.
Mikana yechando uye zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika mumavhiki umo zvinogona kukanganisa goho nekugadzirwa (semuenzaniso, kunonoka kwechando kana zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika pamberi pekusunungurwa kwe endodormancy) zvakaverengerwa zvakare. Kune mamiriro azvino, zviitiko zvechando zvinowanzoitika munzvimbo dzinotonhora, sezvaitarisirwa. Zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika mumavhiki akakosha zvakaiswa munzvimbo yeMedithera mumakore apfuura asi zvine mukana wakaderera. Fungidziro yeramangwana yezvakasiyana izvi inoratidza kuti zviitiko zvechando mumavhiki umo kugadzirwa kwemichero yematombo kunogona kukanganisa (Miranda et al., 2005; Julian et al., 2007) ichaderera sezvo zana rinofambira mberi uye richava shoma kakawanda kune RCP8.5, iyo inobvumirana nezvidzidzo zvekare (Leolini et al., 2018) Nekudaro, dzimwe nzvimbo dzeEbro Valley uye dzimwe nzvimbo dzemukati dzenzvimbo dzeMediteranian dzicharamba dzichisangana nenhamba yakakosha yezviitiko zvechando mukati memavhiki aripo kunyangwe munzvimbo inodziya zvakanyanya (kureva, 2055_RCP8.5, Mufananidzo 5) Tsanangudzo yechiitiko chechando maererano nekupisa uye nguva yekuratidzwa yakanyatsoenderana neiyo phenological nhanho yeinogara cultivar (Miranda et al., 2005) Tichifunga hukuru hwakakura hwemhando dzemhando dzemichero yematombo, kubva pazasi kusvika pakakwirira kwazvo CR, uye huwandu hwenzvimbo dzakaongororwa, kubva kunotonhora kusvika pakudziya, kumisikidza imwe cultivar/nzvimbo yechando tsananguro hazvigoneke muchidzidzo ichi nekuda kwehuwandu hukuru hwe ruzivo rwakabatanidzwa. Aya marudzi ezvidzidzo anowanzo itwa pachishandiswa nzvimbo shoma uye/kana cultivars, senge yakaitwa nayo Lorite et al. (2020) zvemaamanda muSpain, Fernandez et al. (2020) muChile, uyo akaverengera tembiricha shoma iri pasi pe 0°C panguva yekutumbuka kwemhando yemiti yemichero inomiririra inorimwa pane imwe neimwe yenzvimbo pfumbamwe dzinofungidzirwa, kana Parker et al. (2021) avo vakafunga tembiricha dzakasiyana uye nhanho dzephenological yemarudzi matatu (kureva, maamondi, makopeya, uye maranjisi) asi vakaitawo chimiro chenzvimbo nekutarisa tembiricha nhatu (0, −2, uye +2 ° C) uye nguva yekuratidzwa. Sarudzo yedu ye −1°C uye angangoita maawa matatu akatevedzana ine chinangwa chekuratidza kushanduka kwezviitiko zvechando pane kubatanidza kukuvadzwa chaiko kune mamwe macultivars, ayo angangofungidzira imwe chidzidzo. Tsanangudzo iyi yakagamuchirwa mushure mekutora pfungwa dzenyanzvi. Nekuda kwehuwandu hwakakura hwemacultivar maererano neCR neHR uye nekusiyana kwekutonga kwetembiricha munzvimbo dzakatariswa muchidzidzo ichi, takasarudza mavhiki iwayo (kubva pa2 kusvika pa10) apo ese (kana mazhinji) musanganiswa wecultivar/nzvimbo. inotapukirwa nekukuvadzwa nechando zvichienderana nedanho ravo re phenological. Nezvekuita sarudzo, vagadziri vanofanira kusarudza mepu inonyatsoenderana nemamiriro avo chaiwo (kureva, cultivar/nzvimbo) kuti vaite sarudzo yakakwana. Kazhinji, nzvimbo dzinodziya uye/kana maruva ekutanga maruva anove ane hukama nemavhiki ekutanga muchikamu chakatariswa, nepo nzvimbo dzinotonhora uye/kana dzinononoka maruva cultivar dzine chekuita nemavhiki anotevera muchikamu chakatariswa. Zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika munguva yechando zvinogona kuwedzera kuburitswa kwekutanga endodormancy, izvo zvinokanganisa kugadzirwa (Viti uye Monteleone, 1995; Rodrigo naHerrero, 2002; Ladwig et al., 2019), ichawedzerwa zvakanyanya muGuadalquivir Valley, nzvimbo dzemahombekombe eMedithera, uye zvakare muExtremadura nedzimwe nzvimbo dzeEbro Valley pakati kana kupera kwaFebruary (Mufananidzo 6) Quantification yemetric iyi kazhinji haina kutariswa mumabhuku asi inogona kumutsa zvakakosha zvekugadzira munzvimbo dzinodziya sezvakaonekwa mumakore achangopfuura. Zvakare, kuisa 25°C kana kuti pamusoro kweanenge maawa matatu anotevedzana kutsanangura chiitiko chakadaro kwakasundwa nemirangariro yenyanzvi. Zvakangofanana nekuitika kwezviitiko zvechando, isu takasarudza mavhiki iwayo (kubva pa49 kusvika 8) apo ese (kana mazhinji) masanganiswa ekurima / nzvimbo anogona kutapukirwa nekukanganiswa nezviitiko izvi zvichienderana nedanho ravo re phenological. Kazhinji, nzvimbo dzinodziya uye/kana maruva ekutanga maruva anove ane hukama nemavhiki ekutanga muchikamu chakatariswa, nepo nzvimbo dzinotonhora uye/kana dzinononoka maruva cultivar dzine chekuita nemavhiki anotevera muchikamu chakatariswa.
Mametric eagroclimatic akaverengerwa muchidzidzo ichi anopa ruzivo rwakakosha kune varimi kuti vasarudze mhando dzemhando dzakanyanya kufanira munzvimbo imwe neimwe yekuuchika kubva pamaonero anochinjika. Chirimwa chega chega chine maCRs ekupwanya endodormancy (Campoy et al., 2011b; Fadón et al., 2020b) Kudzikira kwekuwanda kwekutonhora sezvazvinenge zvichifungidzirwa mune ramangwana kunogona kukonzera kuti mbeu dzakarimwa dzisazadzisa CR yadzo mune dzimwe nzvimbo, kunyanya idzo dzeMedithera neGuadalquivir Valley nzvimbo, idzo dzatodziya. Izvi zvinosanganisira kusakwana kwe endodormancy kusunungurwa kunobata miti yemichero muzvikamu zvitatu zvikuru, zvinoti, madonhwe emaruva emaruva (uye nekudaro maruva asina kunaka), kunonoka mukutumbuka uye kumera, uye kushayikwa kwekufanana mune zvose zviri zviviri, izvo zvinotungamirira kumatambudziko makuru ekubereka.Legave et al., 1983; Erez, 2000; Atkinson et al., 2013) Zvose izvi zvinogona kuunza kurasikirwa kwakakosha kwehupfumi kuvagadziri. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, ruzivo nezve CR kune akasiyana cultivar akakosha kunyangwe ruzivo rwuripo parizvino rushoma mumiti yemichero yematombo (Fadón et al., 2020b), kusanganisira peach (Maulión et al., 2014), maapricot (Ruiz et al., 2007, puranga (Ruiz et al., 2018), uye cherry inotapira (Alburquerque et al., 2008).
Munzvimbo dzinodziya dzakaita seMedithera neGuadalquivir Valley, uko kutonhora kwakaunganidzwa kuri pasi pezvikamu makumi matanhatu mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo, mbeu dzinokurumidza kuibva neCR dziri pakati pezvikamu makumi matatu nemakumi matanhatu dzinorimwa. Kuzadzikiswa kweCR kune idzi cultivars kunogona kuve panjodzi mune ese akaongororwa emangwana mamiriro (Mufananidzo 2) Kuti ive nechokwadi chekukodzera kwemhando dzakasiyana-siyana/macultivar kunzvimbo idzi, panogona kudiwa kutamiswa, uye mamwe macultivar anofanirwa kutamisirwa kunzvimbo dzekuvhara (nzvimbo dzemukati munharaunda yeMedithera kana kuExtremadura kana iri Guadalquivir Valley) uko CR ichazadziswa kunyange mune ramangwana mamiriro, uye njodzi yechando inotarisirwa kuderera. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, kuumwa kana kukura kwembesa dzine CR yakaderera zvikuru inova chinangwa chakakosha chinofanira kutariswa muzvirongwa zvekuuchika zvemhando/macultivar aripo, kunyanya kuti aenderane nenzvimbo dzinodziya apo zvirimwa zvazvino zvichange zviri panjodzi mune ramangwana. Scenarios. Kana zvisina kudaro, nzvimbo idzi hadzizokwanisi kuchengetedza mabasa avo ekugadzira uye ehupfumi ane chokuita nekugadzirwa kwemichero yematombo. Kunze kweizvi, nzira dzakasiyana dzeagronomic uye mazano anogona zvakare kushandiswa kuderedza kuunganidzwa kwechando munzvimbo idzi munharaunda. Kushandiswa kwebio-stimulants kuputsa endodormancy isati yazadzisa CR kana kushandiswa kwemambure e shading panguva dzakasiyana-siyana dze dormancy zvakatotsanangurwa munzvimbo dzinodziya dzekugadzira michero yematombo (Gilreath naBuchanan, 1981; Erez, 1987; Costa et al., 2004; Campoy et al., 2010; Petri et al., 2014), kunyangwe kumwe kutsvagisa nekugadzirisa kunofanirwa kuitwa kuti matekiniki aya ashande uye kukurudzira kushandiswa kwavo kwakarongeka. Kusiyana neizvi, munzvimbo dzinotonhora zvikuru dzinogadzira dzakaita seEbro Valley, kuchamhembe kweExtremadura, uye dzimwe nzvimbo dzemukati munharaunda yeMedithera, zviitiko zvishoma zvechando zvinotarisirwa, izvo zvinogona kubvumira mbesa dzekare kupfuura dzemazuva ano, izvo zvaizowedzera huwandu hwema cultivar anoshanda uye, saka, iyo inopihwa kumusika ine yakanaka yehupfumi mhedzisiro yenzvimbo. Pakazere, munzvimbo dzese dzekugadzira, zvakakosha kuti titarise mbesa dzakarimwa izvozvi uye kuongorora izvo zviri kumucheto kwekuzadzisa kwavo CR kutsiva kana kufambisa kana kuunza maitiro ekutonga anotsanangurwa pamusoro kuti ive nechokwadi chekuenderana nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze matsva. Scenarios.
Nezve kuunganidzwa kwekupisa, mamiriro emangwana anofanotaura kuwedzera kwekusiyana uku munzvimbo dzese dzinofungidzirwa (Mufananidzo 4) Munzvimbo dzinodziya uye dzepakati, shanduko iyi haina kusimba sekuunganidza kutonhora asi inogona kuve nemhedzisiro yakakosha pane phenology, ichigadzira kumberi mumazuva ekutumbuka uye nekudaro kuwedzera njodzi inogona kuitika yechando.Mosedale et al., 2015; Unterberger et al., 2018; Ma et al., 2019) Seimwe pfungwa yekuwedzera, kufambira mberi kwemaruva uku kunosanganisira kuibva kumberi zvakare (Peñuelas uye Filella, 2001; Campoy et al., 2011b), iyo inofanirwa kuverengerwa nevagadziri kuti vaise zvigadzirwa zvavo pamisika. Kusiyana neizvi, munzvimbo dzinotonhora, kushayikwa kwekupisa kuunganidza mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo kunogona kukuvadza kuvandudzwa kwephenological uye kukura kwemichero (Fadón et al., 2020a) Idzi nzvimbo dzinotonhora parizvino dzichafarirwa neinofungidzira kuwedzera kupisa kwekuwedzera kwezviitiko zveramangwana. Sezvakaratidzwa mu Mufananidzo 6, zviitiko zvekupisa zvisina kujairika zvichave zvakanyanya mune ramangwana zviitiko pamazuva apo miti yemichero haisati yaburitsa enddormancy, kunyanya munzvimbo dzinodziya seGuadalquivir Valley uye Mediterranean nzvimbo. Zviitiko izvi zvinogona kuva nemigumisiro yakaipa zvikuru apo CR yakavharwa zvishoma (yakakomberedza 60-70%), zvichiita kuti dormancy isina kukwana inogona kusanganisira matambudziko emiti uye maruva, ane kukanganisa kwakashata pamichero yakagadzirwa uye goho (Rodrigo naHerrero, 2002; Campoy et al., 2011a).
Chero zvazvingaitika, shanduko mukutonhora uye kuunganidza kwekushisa hakuna mhedzisiro yakafanana pacultivar ese nenzvimbo dzawo sezvo mamwe miripo inogona kuitika maererano nechiyero chill / kupisa kuunganidzwa maererano nekuburitswa kwe endodormancy kana maruva ekufanotaura.Pope et al., 2014) Kunze kwezvo, agroclimatic characterization yenzvimbo pachiyero chenzvimbo chaiyo inogona kuda imwe calibration yedata nekuda kwe spatial heterogeneity (Lorite et al., 2020) kuita sarudzo dzakanakisa maererano nesarudzo dzakanyanya dzekurima. Mhedzisiro yakapihwa muchidzidzo ichi inogona kubatsira kwete pakugadzira michero yematombo chete asiwo kune mimwe michero yakapfava ine kukosha kukuru munzvimbo dziripo, semuenzaniso, mazambiringa muLa Rioja (Ebro Valley) kana mamwe. Mhedzisiro iyi inogona kuve hwaro hwemaitiro ekutsigira sarudzo kubatsira vanogadzira kuita sarudzo dzakanyanya (semu, kusarudza kurima, kutamiswa, uye kuita kwekuderedza manejimendi maitiro) munguva yepakati uye refu.
Data Kuwanikwa Chirevo
Mipiro yepakutanga yakaratidzwa muchidzidzo inosanganisirwa muchinyorwa/Supplementary Material, mimwe mibvunzo inogona kuendeswa kune vanyori vanoenderana.
Munyori Mipiro
MC, JG-B, JG, uye DR vakabata uye vakagadzira chidzidzo. MC yakapa data yeagroclimatic yemamiriro azvino. JAE yakaita maverengero ezviitiko zveramangwana. JAE naDR vakanyora rutivi rukuru rwechinyorwa chacho. JE yakapa ruzivo nezve tekinoroji agronomic maficha. JG yakakwanisa purojekiti yekuvandudza iyo yakatsigira iyi tsvagiridzo. Vese vanyori vakagadziridza gwaro uye vakabvumidza iyo yakatumirwa vhezheni.
Mari
Rutsigiro rwemari rwakapihwa neSpain Ministry of Agriculture, Hove uye Chikafu kuburikidza neInnovation Project "Adaptation of stone fruit sector to climate change" (REF: MAPA-PNDR 20190020007385) uye nePRIMA, chirongwa chinotsigirwa pasi peH2020, European Union's Framework. chirongwa chekutsvaga nekuvandudza ("AdaMedOr" chirongwa; kupa nhamba PCI2020-112113 yeSpanish Ministry yeScience uye Innovation).
Kurwisana kwezvaunofarira
Vanyori vanotaura kuti kutsvakurudza kwakaitwa mukusabatwa kweukama hwekutengeserana kana hwezvemari hunogona kunzi sekugona kukakavara kwechido.
Mharidzo YeCherechedzo
Zvese zvichemo zvinoburitswa muchinyorwa chino ndeizvo zvevanyori chete uye hazvireve kuti zvinomiririra izvo zvemasangano akabatana navo, kana izvo zvemuparidzi, vapepeti nevanoongorora. Chero chigadzirwa chinogona kuongororwa muchinyorwa chino, kana kudai chinogona kuitwa nemugadziri wacho, hachina kuvimbiswa kana kubvumidzwa nemushambadzi.
Kutenda
Tinotenda nhengo dzese dzeSpanish Operative Group "Kugadziriswa kwechikamu chematombo emichero kukuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze" (FECOAM, FECOAV, ANECOOP, Frutaria, Basol Fruits, Fundación Universidad-Empresa de la Región de Murcia, Fundación Cajamar) nekuda kwekubatsira kwavo kwakakosha kuvandudzwa kweprojekti. Tinotenda AEMET nedata riripo pane yayo peji rewebhu (http://www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat/datos_diarios).
Supplementary Material
Iyo Supplementary Material yechinyorwa ichi inogona kuwanikwa online pa: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.842628/full#supplementary-material
Supplementary Figure 1 | Hukama pakati pezvimedu zvakaunganidzwa uye mayunitsi ekutonhora kwemamiriro azvino munhepfenyuro dzese dzemamiriro ekunze.
Supplementary Figure 2 | Hukama pakati pezvinoreva zvakaunganidzwa GDH yeAnderson neRichardson modhi yemamiriro azvino munhepfenyuro dzese dzemamiriro ekunze.
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Keywords: Prunus, muchero wedombo, kugadzirisa, kutonhora kuunganidza, phenology, njodzi yechando, sarudzo yemhando, agroclimatic metrics
Citation: Egea JA, Caro M, García-Brunton J, Gambín J, Egea J naRuiz D (2022) Agroclimatic Metrics yeMain Stone Fruit Production Areas muSpain in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios: Zvinoitika Kubva paAdaptive Point of View. Mberi. Dyara Sci. 13:842628. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.842628
Yakagamuchirwa: 23 December 2021; Yakagamuchirwa: 02 May 2022;
Yakabudiswa: 08 June 2022.
Rakapepetwa:Hisayo Yamane, Kyoto University, Japan
Akaongororwa nevanhu:Liang Guo, Northwest A&F University, China
Kirti Rajagopalan, Washington State University, United States
Copyright © 2022 Egea, Caro, García-Brunton, Gambín, Egea naRuiz. Ichi chinyorwa-chakavhurika chakagoverwa pasi pemitemo ye Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). Iko kushandiswa, kugovera kana kubereka zvakare mune mamwe maforamu anotenderwa, chero munyori wepakutanga (muridzi) uye muridzi (iye) muridzi wekopi akabvumidzwa uye zvakaburitswa mukutanga kwebhuku iri muchinyorwa ichi, zvinoenderana negwara rekudzidza. Hapana kushandiswa, kugovera kana kubereka zvakare zvinotenderwa izvo zvisingaenderane nematemu aya.
* Correspondence: Jose A. Egea, jaegea@cebas.csic.es; David Ruiz, druiz@cebas.csic.es
Kunobva: https://www.frontiersin.org